QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 14, 2022
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued this warning at 2355 UTC
on January 13:
"A Southern coronal hole with extensions into the equatorial region
is expected to reach geoeffective location on the solar disk on late
UT day 15 January. As a result, unsettled to active conditions with
a chance of minor storms are possible on these two days."
Two new sunspot groups emerged on January 9 and another on January
12, then three more on January 13. Average daily sunspot numbers
rose 6 points this week, to 42.4, and average daily solar flux
increased from 91.4 to 101.6.
Another positive sign yesterday, January 13, the daily sunspot
number soared to 111, far above the recent weekly average, and the
highest number since Christmas Day 2021.
Geomagnetic indicators were quieter this week, with average daily
planetary A index declining from 7.7 to 6.1, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 6 to 4.1.
Spaceweather.com reported the new solar cycle is performing better
than expected, and used this illustration:
