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ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
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Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 5, 2021
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end
of our reporting week (October 28 through November 3), but averages
for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP044.
Average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while
average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.
CME activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher.
Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and
average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On
November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A
index was 131!
Spaceweather.com reported a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC
on November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm,
and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in United States down
below the northern tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect
on HF propagation the following day. For a time on Thursday testing
propagation paths using FT8 and pskreporter, I could see no
propagation above 20 meters.