March 31, 2011
A Democratic Middle East?
by Stephen Haber (Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow and member of the Property Rights, Freedom, and Prosperity Task Force) and Victor Menaldo (W. Glenn Campbell and Rita Ricardo-Campbell National Fellow, 2009–10)
Look to the region’s economic—and even geographic—history for a hint of its political future.
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The Middle East and North Africa are being swept by popular uprisings. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled Tunisia since 1987, and Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak, who ruled Egypt since 1981, have been forced from power in quick succession, and with minimal bloodshed.
Protesters have taken to the streets in Bahrain, Iran, Syria, and Yemen, causing security forces to crack down, with varying degrees of success, fearful of the outcomes of the Tunisian and Egyptian Revolutions. Open civil war has broken out in Libya. The participants in all of these movements demand democracy, an end to corruption, and economic opportunity. Will they succeed?
Illustration by Barbara Kelley |
The states that make up the Middle East and North Africa are among the world’s oldest—and have persistently settled into patterns of autocratic rule since their creation. Egypt has been a territorial state since the first pharaoh in 3150 BC, but it has never once in five millennia experimented with democracy. The overthrow of the Alawiyya Dynasty in 1952 did not produce a republic; it resulted in the dictatorship of Gamal Abdel Nasser.
Contrary to popular belief, present day Iraq has been a recognizable political entity since Sargon of Akkad united the city-states of Mesopotamia by conquest in the 23rd century BC. Although the last Iraqi monarch was overthrown in 1958, he was replaced by Saddam Hussein. Iran has been a state since the creation of the Persian Empire in the 6th century BC. Its last monarch, Shah Reza Pahlavi, was overthrown in 1979, but he was replaced by yet another autocrat, the Ayatollah Khomeini.
Read more:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2011/04/01/is_a_democratic_middle_east_possible_253055.html
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Is a Democratic Middle East Possible?
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