The World from Berlin: 'Arab Autocrats Have Been Warned' by Tunisia

Source Spiegelonline

Süddeutsche Zeitung:
"The rulers in the region consider themselves unassailable… That is why the fall of the Tunisian president is a milestone in the history of the Arab world. It shows that popular rage can shake even the most entrenched of regimes in the region. Ben Ali, a man whose grip on power seemed guaranteed and whose family unashamedly sucked the country dry, was forced to flee. One could be just as negative about the other Arabic presidents, kings and emirates: Even if they themselves are not personally corrupt, their ministers or family entourage are."
"These countries also share similar economic problems. There is rapid population growth, with half of the population aged 30 or under. There is a lack of jobs and living space and the number of unemployed graduates is particularly high. The countries rely either exclusively on oil exports or tourism. There are no truly diversified economies."
"After the ignominious end of Ben Ali's rule, the Arab autocrats have been warned. They are hardly likely to wait until economic crises bring the people out onto the streets. However, instead of reacting with reforms, they are going to increase repression and strike first before citizens who are sick of their regimes can organize themselves."

Die Welt:
"When a regime falls, it seldom brings a brand new day. The transition from a dictatorship to a democratic state is usually accomplished by those who were already serving the old masters. In the best-case scenario they seize their historic opportunity to become heroes … and create political structures that allow a new political generation to emerge. It is not yet clear if Tunisia is on this path."
"Yet the Tunisian experience is still valuable for the entire region. It is the first practical proof that a people can overthrow a dictator on their own -- rather than, as in Iraq in 2003, have him overthrown for them. This news has electrified the young people in all the countries of the region."

Handelsblatt:
"The good news from Tunisia is that it was not fundamentalist, Islamist forces that chased Ben Ali regime from power. The Tunisians want freedom and democracy. The bad news is that there are too few political leaders who could easily fill the vacuum left behind by the corrupt regime. The danger has not passed: Tunisia can either descend into anarchy and chaos or it can embark on the arduous path to an Arab democracy."
"The country needs help to take this path -- particularly from countries like France, which for years have closed their eyes to the circumstances in the Maghreb states. They could provide economic and political support to a society that would no longer present itself as stable to the outside world while practicing repression at home."
"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has put it bluntly: The Arab states will only have a future if they forgo corruption and repression under their own steam. Not all of these states have the wealth that the Gulf States enjoy. They all, though, have the power to introduce reforms. If they don't do so, then the frustration of the younger generation will become so great, that the Islamic and terrorist organizations will find it increasingly easier to recruit there. The West must not allow this to happen. And Tunisia can show an unstable region how change can succeed."

The Financial Times Deutschland:
"The events in Tunisia should give those in the West who have backed authoritarian Arab regimes pause for thought. Diplomats were fully aware of the Ben Ali's failings -- US diplomats even warned about the growing social dissatisfaction. However, the Americans and the Europeans were too quick to assume that the only alternative to the authoritarian rulers would be Islamist theocracies."
"Ben Ali profited, for example, from the civil war in neighboring Algeria in the 1990s. As long as the Tunisian president prevented the spread of Islamists to his country, then he could do what he liked. The rest of the world left him alone because they misinterpreted repression as stability."
"Yet there would have been no danger in allowing Tunisia to experiment with democracy. There is hardly any Islamist movement there, the economy is closely linked with Europe and the society has a high level of tolerance, as expressed in the large degree of equality for women. The country could have acted as an example for the rest of the Arab world."

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: "From the Tunisian point of view, Paris is the capital of Europe. Yet the French leadership only encouraged the demonstrators in their demands for democracy after Ben Ali had fled. …. Although interfering in former colonies can often backfire, Paris could have found the means to strengthen the Tunisian civil society and political opposition in good time. The quicker the old men of the ravaged regime organize an election spectacle that resembles democracy, the harder it will be for the forces of freedom to form in time. The Tunisians can pride themselves on having achieved themselves what Europe could hardly dream of. Hopefully the European support that is now arriving during this decisive stage is not too late."

Die Tageszeitung: "Arab autocrats and monarchs have good reason to be worried that the revolt in Tunisia could inspire imitation. Their subjects, after all, suffer from the same problems as the Tunisians: unemployment, price increases, corruption, political despotism, and a lack of freedom of speech."
"Most politicians in the West were caught unawares by Tunisian revolt. They took some time before they managed to encourage the protestors. For far too long Europe and the US have regarded the secular Arab dictators … as the lesser evil. As long as they promised to keep the Islamists in their countries in check or to prevent African refugees from reaching Europe, they could count on support. There was little desire to know exactly what methods were being used to ensure this."