Without Egypt, Israel will be left with no friends in Mideast

Sat, January 29, 2011 Shvat 24, 5771

Without Egypt's Mubarak and with relations with Turkey in shambles, Israel will be forced to court new potential allies.

By Aluf Benn

The fading power of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government leaves Israel in a state of strategic distress. Without Mubarak, Israel is left with almost no friends in the Middle East. Last year, Israel saw its alliance with Turkey collapse. From now on, it will be hard for Israel to trust an Egyptian government torn apart by internal strife. Israel's increasing isolation in the region, coupled with a weakening United States, will force the government to court new potential allies.

Israel's foreign policy has depended on regional alliances which have provided the country with strategic depth since the 1950's. The country's first partner was France, which at the time ruled over northern Africa. France provided Israel with advanced weapons and nuclear capabilities.

An anti-government protester ripping a poster of Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, January 26, 2011.

After Israel's war against Egypt in 1956, David ben Gurion attempted to establish alliances with non-Arab countries in the region, including Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. The Shah of Iran became a significant ally of Israel, supplying the country with oil and purchasing weapons from it. The countries' militaries and intelligence agencies worked on joint operations against Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser's rule, which was seen as the main threat against Israel and pro-Western Arab governments.


Israel's next alliances were forged with Jordan's King Hussein and Morocco's King Hassan. These ties were operated in secret, as well as ties with leaders in Lebanon's Christian community. The mid 1970's saw the fall of the Shah of Iran, with an anti-Israel Islamic republic created in his place.

Around the same time, Egypt and Israel broke their cycle of conflict by signing a peace agreement. Egypt presented itself on the side of Saudi Arabia, as head of the pro-American camp.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak inherited the peace agreement following former President Anwar Sadat's assassination. Mubarak was cold in his public relations with Israel, refusing to visit the country except for Yitzhak Rabin's funeral, which decelerated normalization between the countries.

Relations between the Israel Defense Forces and the Egyptian army were conducted on a low level, with no joint exercises. Egyptian public opinion was openly hostile towards Israel and anti-Semitic phrases were commonly used. Civil relations between the countries were carried out by a handful of government workers and businessmen.

Despite all of this, the "cold peace" with Egypt was the most important strategic alliance that Israel had in the Middle East. The alliance's security gave Israel the chance to concentrate its forces on the northern front and around the settlements. Starting in 1985, peace with Egypt allowed for Israel to cut its defense budget, which greatly benefited the economy.

Mubarak became president while Israel was governed by Menachim Begin, and has worked with eight different Israeli leaders since then. He had close relations with Yitzhak Rabin and Benjamin Netanyahu. In the last two years, despite a stagnation in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians and worsening relations between Netanyahu and the Arab world, Mubarak has hosted the prime minister both in Cairo and in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The friendship between Mubarak and Netanyahu is based on a mutual fear over Iran's strengthening and the rising power of Islamists as well as over the weakening and distancing of the U.S. government with Barack Obama at its head.

Now, with Mubarak struggling over the survival of his government, Israel is left with two strategic allies in the region: Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. These two allies promise to strengthen Israel's Eastern battlefront and are also working to stop terror attacks and slow down Hamas.

But Israel's relationship with these two allies is complicated. Joint security exercises are modest and the relationship between the leaders is poor. Jordan's King Abdullah refuses to meet Netanyahu and Palestinian and President Mahmoud Abbas is waging a diplomatic struggle against Israel's right-wing government. It's hard to tell how Jordan and the PA could fill the roll that Egypt has played for Israel.

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